概率嘅詮釋

概率嘅詮釋係指學界對「概率（probability）表示緊啲乜」嘅思考。

喺概率論史上，「概率呢個數值要點樣理解」係一個有相當爭議性嘅問題：喺最基本上，古典嘅決定論（determinism）主張，如果一個觀察者喺而家呢一刻完美知道嗮宇宙嘅狀態（例：知道每粒原子喺乜位置同以乜嘢速度郁緊等等），佢將會有能力靠物理定律－假設佢識嗮所需嘅物理知識－完美預測宇宙下一刻嘅狀態（可以睇吓拉普拉斯魔）^[1]，所以概率呢個數值淨係反映人類知識唔夠，而主張呢個觀點嘅人會話「人之所以預測唔到掟銀仔嘅結果，係因為人知唔嗮風向等嘅資訊」^[2]^[3]。不過廿世紀量子力學（quantum mechanics）研究指出，宇宙裏面有部份嘅事件似乎係本質上就冇可能完全準確噉預測嘅，人頂櫳都淨係有得估呢啲事件發生嘅概率。

主要諗法

攷

↑ Richard Langdon Franklin (1968). Freewill and determinism: a study of rival conceptions of man. Routledge & K. Paul.
↑ Laplace, Pierre Simon. A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, translated into English from the original French 6th ed. by Truscott, F.W. and Emory, F.L., Dover Publications (New York, 1951).
↑ Moore, W.J. (1992). Schrödinger: Life and Thought. Cambridge University Press. p. 479.

[1] Richard Langdon Franklin (1968). Freewill and determinism: a study of rival conceptions of man. Routledge & K. Paul.

[2] Laplace, Pierre Simon. A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, translated into English from the original French 6th ed. by Truscott, F.W. and Emory, F.L., Dover Publications (New York, 1951).

[3] Moore, W.J. (1992). Schrödinger: Life and Thought. Cambridge University Press. p. 479.

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