「一位天使對翼係 50 kg 咁重」呢句嘢就冇乜可否證度;因為如果要驗證呢句嘢,就要去搵一位天使返嚟,再用某啲方法磅吓佢對翼,睇吓佢對翼係咪真係 50 kg 咁重,但問題係以廿一世紀初嘅認知,冇人能夠搵到天使返嚟,所以冇任何方法可以證實句嘢係一個錯嘅預測(要搵到天使呢樣搵唔到嘅嘢先可以驗證-實際上不可否證)。
假說[英 8]喺科學上係指一啲由科學理論嗰度推理出嚟嘅陳述(「如果個理論係真,噉 H 呢句嘢應該會係真」,當中 H 就係一句假說),有可以直接噉驗證,但未經證實。每當有科學家提出新嘅理論去解釋某啲打前解釋唔到嘅現象嗰陣,科學界通常第一時間想做嘅嘢就係會想去搵啲方法嚟去驗證吓個理論。佢哋會由個理論嗰度開始諗吓「如果個理論係真嘅,會引起啲乜嘢假說」,跟住佢哋就會去設計啲實驗出嚟去驗證吓呢啲假說。例如係頭先講咗嘅進化論噉[55]:
根據進化論,一個種群有可能喺短時間之內啲基因頻率一代代噉變;
噉如果攞(例如)一個種群嘅飛蛾嚟睇,設 做其中一個基因喺呢個種群入面出現嘅頻率;如果進化論係真確嘅,應該會有最少一個 會喺幾代之間唔同咗-而假設有現代嘅遺傳學知識,「會有最少一個 會喺幾代之間唔同咗」呢句假說有得靠直接嘅觀察嚟驗證。喺成個諗嘢過程入面,研究者用咗如果...,噉應該...[英 14]嘅邏輯-如果 A 係真,噉 B 應該都會係真,既然係噉,如果發現咗 B 唔係真,噉 A 就應該唔係真。「有最少一個 會喺幾代之間唔同咗」呢句嘢喺呢度就係一個假說:句嘢由進化論嗰度推理出嚟,有得用觀察驗證[56]。
假設第啲因素不變,要控制嗮理論 B 嗰啲變數難過要控制嗮理論 A 嗰啲,所以响做實驗同觀察嗰陣,理論 B 有更加大嘅機會出現以下噉嘅情況:數據唔撐個理論啲假說,但幫個理論辯護嘅人詏,話個結果之所以會係噉只不過係因為冇控制嗮所有嘅變數-「今次嘅實驗淨係控制咗其中 20 個變數,淨低嗰 10 個變數冇量度到,所以今次實驗唔算真係測試到個理論」 ;相比之下,理論 A 得嗰 4 個變數,假設第啲因素不變,要控制嗮啲變數會相對容易-一個理論「變數多」間接令個理論更加難驗證[64][65]。
總結:提出咗諗法,又搵到證據撐自己個諗法之後,研究者正路會大致上噉總結吓自己搵到嘅結果,並且講吓呢啲結果對現有嘅知識體有咩啟示-例如「對於我而家呢個實驗,手上呢兩個理論會作出唔同嘅假說,我做呢個實驗嘗試驗證邊個理論作嘅假說先至係真確,實驗結果撐理論 A 多過撐理論 B,而我認為理論 B 要作出噉噉噉嘅修改先至可以令佢有說服力」噉嘅推論。
Feyerabend, P. (2005). Science, history of the philosophy, as cited in Honderich, Ted (2005). The Oxford companion to philosophy. Oxford Oxfordshire: Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19-926479-1. OCLC 173262485.
McComas, W. F. (1998). The principal elements of the nature of science: Dispelling the myths. In McComas, William F. The nature of science in science education: rationales and strategies (PDF). Springer. ISBN 978-0-7923-6168-8.
Papineau, D. (1996). Philosophy of science (pp. 286-316). New Jersey: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Popper, K. (2002) The Logic of Scientific Discovery, 2nd Edition. UK: Routledge Classics, ISBN-10 8130908115.(原版喺 1959 年出)
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Kuhn, T. (1962). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.
Needham, J. (1954). Science and Civilisation in China: Introductory Orientations. 1. Cambridge University Press.
Shanahan, M. (2015). The Technological Singularity. MIT Press.
其他拉雜類型嘅文獻:
Augros, R. M., & Stanciu, G. N. (1984). The New Story of Science: mind and the universe, Lake Bluff, Ill.: Regnery Gateway. ISBN 0-89526-833-7
Feynman, R. P. (1999). Robbins, Jeffrey, Ed. The pleasure of finding things out the best short works of Richard P. Feynman. Cambridge, Mass.: Perseus Books. ISBN 0465013120.
Feynman, R. P. (1999). The Pleasure of Finding Things Out: The Best Short Works of Richard P. Feynman. Perseus Books Group. ISBN 0-465-02395-9. OCLC 181597764.
Hagstrom, W. O. (1965). The scientific community. New York: Basic books.
Levin, Y. (2008). Imagining the Future: Science and American Democracy. New York, Encounter Books. ISBN 1-59403-209-2
Nosek, B. A., Ebersole, C. R., DeHaven, A. C., & Mellor, D. T. (2018). The preregistration revolution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(11), 2600-2606,講到預註冊研究點樣可以應付發表偏差(指啲期刊一味淨係登啲望落得意搶眼嘅結果)嘅問題,從而提升科研再現嘅能力。
↑康德寫嘢用嘅唔係粵語白話文而係德文。呢句粵文譯版嚟自英文譯句-"All our knowledge begins with the senses, proceeds then to the understanding, and ends with reason. There is nothing higher than reason."
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↑Konrad Lorenz > Quotes > Quotable Quote, goodreads,原版英文:"Philosophers are people who know less and less about more and more, until they know nothing about everything. Scientists are people who know more and more about less and less, until they know everything about nothing."